The French election. Climbing mount improbable. Nicolas Sarkozy promises voters he can change

Apr 7th 2012 | NANCY AND TOUL-ROSIÈRES | from the print edition

NOT a single poll suggests he will win France’s upcoming presidential election. But Nicolas Sarkozy, the incumbent president, hardly looks like a man contemplating defeat. By turns punchy and humorous, he sweeps into a meeting with workers at a solar-energy plant in eastern France, lauding the country’s industrial prowess while surrounded by workers in hard hats. Later, to cheers from a flag-waving crowd at a rally in Nancy, he declares that he is “fighting morning, noon and night” for France, and that “in my vocabulary, the term ‘surrender’ does not exist.”

Three months ago, polls for the two-round election, on April 22nd and May 6th, suggested that even Mr Sarkozy’s place in the second-round run-off could be at risk: Marine Le Pen, the far-right National Front candidate, was snapping at his heels. And François Hollande, the Socialist challenger, enjoyed a handsome first-round poll lead, riding a wave of anti-sarkozysme and a popular desire for change after 17 years of right-wing presidents.

Mr Sarkozy has not yet been able to turn around the second-round polls: they still make Mr Hollande the favourite by between six and 12 percentage points. But he is closing that gap, and has solidified a lead in the first round (see chart). This gives him momentum and, rather improbably, has lent him the air of a challenger. Nothing if not audacious, Mr Sarkozy now seems to be trying to campaign as an underdog who can make a comeback against the odds. With no hint of irony, he told Paris-Match this week: “I will be a different president”, as if nobody would vote for him were he to promise to be the same.In some ways Mr Sarkozy thrives on being dismissed as a no-hoper. He was exiled by his party for years after miserable European election results in 1999, only to spring back stronger. He likes nothing better than appealing to popular support against the establishment. In 2007 he campaigned against the record of his predecessor (and fellow Gaullist), Jacques Chirac. Describing himself as “a little Frenchman of mixed blood”, Mr Sarkozy, the son of a Hungarian immigrant, vowed to get the French to work more, tax them less and overhaul the French model. His message was profoundly anti-conservative, and all the more refreshing for it.

The difficulty now is that even his own voters have mixed feelings about what Mr Sarkozy has actually achieved. Nobody doubts that his presidency has been bold, as his handling of the financial crisis and the armed campaign in Libya showed. Yet, despite some useful reforms, including a rise in the minimum retirement age and the liberalisation of universities, the promisedrupture never happened. A starburst of ideas has produced a scattered record and a lingering confusion about what Mr Sarkozy’s presidency has been about. Making France competitive, or protecting it from competition? Encouraging initiative, or bashing bankers and taxing the rich? The campaign has so far made things no clearer, although Mr Sarkozy has promised that a new manifesto on April 5th will inject some coherence.

There is consternation as well as confusion. The man who leapt up the steps of the Elysée in jogging gear may once have appeared refreshing and youthful. But the French soon felt that Mr Sarkozy’s street-talking style, and the parading of his private life, spoiled the dignity of the office. “At the start, he behaved like a British prime minister,” says one adviser. “He forgot that, in France, he also had to be the monarch.”

In this respect his campaign has skilfully balanced the solemn and the familiar. Freed from protocol, Mr Sarkozy comes across as more authentic, whether on television or in the streets. More surprising, when he was temporarily forced back into the formal role of president last month after the Toulouse terrorist shootings, he seemed better at that, too. The drama played to his strengths, as a tough-talking former interior minister with a hard line on security, and a leader who keeps his head in a crisis. “What we like is that he’s very strong,” says one admirer in Nancy.

Mr Sarkozy’s aides argue that this time his campaign is about authenticity. His strategy, explains Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet, his spokeswoman, is to say: “With me, you know what you are getting.” He has even gone on television to apologise for his vulgar language and poor taste. The French do not feel any affection for him, but neither do they have any illusions. This may not be enough for him to defy the odds and secure victory. But, with an energetic campaign under way, it would be a mistake to rule him out.

from the print edition | Europe

http://www.economist.com/node/21552246

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